The passing of Rep. Don Young (R-AK) and the entrance of former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Santa Claus (you heard right!) into the race for his at-large seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is just the latest twist in what is shaping up to be an interesting election season in Alaska.
During the 2020 general election, Alaskans approved an initiative to establish a nonpartisan top-four primary election system, also known as a jungle primary, and a ranked-choice voting (RCV) general election system. RCV has been used worldwide for over a century and a half and is popular because it eliminates the need to conduct run-off elections and determines the candidate with the strongest support. It can also help a more moderate candidate win an election over political extremists. RCV can be complicated; votes can be “exhausted” if the voter’s choices are eliminated and the candidate who gets the most votes in the first round may not be the winner.
Only Alaska and Maine have implemented statewide RCV so far, although 2022 will be Alaska’s first time using the system for a federal election. Maine uses RCV for federal elections and state primaries, while Alaska will use RCV for federal and state general elections. RCV is also used in some local-level elections, most notably by New York City.
The ballot for Young’s at-large House seat features more than 50 candidates across the political spectrum. If Alaskans choose a more moderate candidate during the special election, Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) chances for re-election in November increase as she is generally viewed as a moderate who has crossed party lines on several occasions. RCV is thought to provide Murkowski (and moderates in the House race) an advantage as Democrats and some independents will be more inclined to rank Murkowski higher than her Trump-endorsed challenger and others. Conversely, if the special election produces a politically extreme candidate, Murkowski will likely face a significant challenge in her August primary – one that RCV may not be able to help her overcome.
Here’s what you need to know about RCV and its potential impact on key elections in the Last Frontier State.
THE RCV LANDSCAPE
Alaska
The special primary election for Young’s seat will take place on June 11 and the general election on August 16. The regular primary, including that for Senate, will take place on August 16 and the general election will be on November 8.
For the primary, voters will cast a vote for one candidate in each race, regardless of political affiliation. The four candidates who receive the most votes will then move on to the general election. If there are fewer than four candidates in a race, all candidates move on to the general election. The general election will then be determined by RCV.
U.S. House Race
The special primary election for former Young’s seat will feature 51 candidates, including Palin, Nick Begich III (R) (grandson of former Rep. Nick Begich Sr. (D-AK) who disappeared in a plane crash during his tenure), orthopedic surgeon and failed 2020 Senate candidate Al Gross (I) and North Pole city council member Santa Claus (undeclared). Fourteen of the 51 candidates are also running for the regular election for the U.S. House seat. Although no polling has been conducted at the time of writing this piece, Palin will likely make it through the primary thanks to her name recognition, Trump’s endorsement, and Alaska’s general Republican tilt. In the special general election, Palin may face more of a challenge. If Palin runs against a more moderate Republican, it will likely handicap her chances of being elected as Democrats, moderate independents and moderate Republicans will likely favor the other, more moderate Republican candidates.
U.S. Senate Race
The U.S. Senate election currently has 12 candidates, including Murkowski. Historically, Murkowski has not been elected by large margins. After she was appointed to the seat in 2002, she won re-election in 2004 by 48.6%, 39.7% in 2010 and 44.4% in 2016. Murkowski actually lost the 2010 Republican primary to former U.S. Magistrate Judge Joe Miller but later won the general election by 39.7% as a write-in candidate. She is currently facing backlash from her constituents for not being “pro-Trump” and has been criticized for her 2017 vote to halt the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Both issues could play a prominent role in her re-election bid. On the flipside, as part of the 2022 omnibus bill, Murkowski managed to secure $230 million in congressionally-directed spending for Alaska – the 11th highest amount in total state earmarks in the Senate. This includes funding for several energy and water infrastructure projects for her constituents as well as projects that benefit local Native populations.
Murkowski’s biggest challenger is Kelly Tshibaka (R), who has been endorsed by Trump. The Alaska Republican State Central Committee also voted to endorse Tshibaka two weeks after they voted to censure Murkowski for voting to impeach Trump. Tshibaka was the Alaska Department of Administration commissioner and had stints in the Inspector General’s offices at the U.S. Postal Service Office and the Federal Trade Commission.
Polling conducted by Cygnal (and sponsored by Tshibaka) in mid-March showed Tshibaka winning the election with 51% of the vote. However, an Alaska Survey Research poll from late October had Murkowski win against Tshibaka with 60%.
RCV may help protect and some independents will be more likely to rank Murkowski higher than Tshibaka, which will help Murkowski edge closer to a majority. Additionally, as of April 2 and with a filing deadline of June 1 approaching, there are currently no announced Democrats running for the seat as State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) ended her campaign due to fundraising challenges.
Maine
Maine approved RCV during the November 2016 election and first used it during the June 2018 primary. While the Senate and 1st Congressional District general elections both passed the first round with a majority in 2018, the 2nd Congressional District was subjected to multiple rounds of counting. Then-incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) filed a federal lawsuit arguing that RCV violates the U.S. Constitution and requested that the count be stopped. A federal judge denied Poliquin’s request and Poliquin ended up losing his seat to Democrat Jared Golden.
In 2019, RCV was approved for presidential general elections starting in 2020 and presidential primaries starting in 2024. The Maine Republican Party attempted to secure a veto referendum on the ballot to prevent the presidential primary from being conducted under RCV. The Maine Supreme Judicial Court ultimately ruled that not enough signatures were collected to add the referendum to the ballot and the presidential general election was conducted using RCV.
New York City
Ranked-choice voting was approved in a 2019 ballot measure for primary and special elections for local office and was first used in the June 2021 primary election. The Democratic primary election for mayor hit a snag when election officials retracted a vote count report after realizing that the results were corrupted by test data that was never cleared out of the system. This ended up causing Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams’s lead against former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia to go from 75,000 votes to fewer than 16,000. Adams eventually won the primary against Garcia with 50.5% of the vote.
WHAT IT ALL MEANS
Voters may find RCV more complicated when compared to the traditional voting system. However, its ability to produce a candidate that most constituents tolerate, even if it is not their first choice, helps to counter polarization and give voters a bigger choice in the winner. If Alaska’s elections are successful, it may encourage more states to consider adoption of RCV in future elections.
THE RCV LANDSCAPE
Alaska
The special primary election for Young’s seat will take place on June 11 and the general election on August 16. The regular primary, including that for Senate, will take place on August 16 and the general election will be on November 8.
For the primary, voters will cast a vote for one candidate in each race, regardless of political affiliation. The four candidates who receive the most votes will then move on to the general election. If there are fewer than four candidates in a race, all candidates move on to the general election. The general election will then be determined by RCV.
U.S. House Race
The special primary election for former Young’s seat will feature 51 candidates, including Palin, Nick Begich III (R) (grandson of former Rep. Nick Begich Sr. (D-AK) who disappeared in a plane crash during his tenure), orthopedic surgeon and failed 2020 Senate candidate Al Gross (I) and North Pole city council member Santa Claus (undeclared). Fourteen of the 51 candidates are also running for the regular election for the U.S. House seat. Although no polling has been conducted at the time of writing this piece, Palin will likely make it through the primary thanks to her name recognition, Trump’s endorsement, and Alaska’s general Republican tilt. In the special general election, Palin may face more of a challenge. If Palin runs against a more moderate Republican, it will likely handicap her chances of being elected as Democrats, moderate independents and moderate Republicans will likely favor the other, more moderate Republican candidates.
U.S. Senate Race
The U.S. Senate election currently has 12 candidates, including Murkowski. Historically, Murkowski has not been elected by large margins. After she was appointed to the seat in 2002, she won re-election in 2004 by 48.6%, 39.7% in 2010 and 44.4% in 2016. Murkowski actually lost the 2010 Republican primary to former U.S. Magistrate Judge Joe Miller but later won the general election by 39.7% as a write-in candidate. She is currently facing backlash from her constituents for not being “pro-Trump” and has been criticized for her 2017 vote to halt the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Both issues could play a prominent role in her re-election bid. On the flipside, as part of the 2022 omnibus bill, Murkowski managed to secure $230 million in congressionally-directed spending for Alaska – the 11th highest amount in total state earmarks in the Senate. This includes funding for several energy and water infrastructure projects for her constituents as well as projects that benefit local Native populations.
Murkowski’s biggest challenger is Kelly Tshibaka (R), who has been endorsed by Trump. The Alaska Republican State Central Committee also voted to endorse Tshibaka two weeks after they voted to censure Murkowski for voting to impeach Trump. Tshibaka was the Alaska Department of Administration commissioner and had stints in the Inspector General’s offices at the U.S. Postal Service Office and the Federal Trade Commission.
Polling conducted by Cygnal (and sponsored by Tshibaka) in mid-March showed Tshibaka winning the election with 51% of the vote. However, an Alaska Survey Research poll from late October had Murkowski win against Tshibaka with 60%.
RCV may help protect and some independents will be more likely to rank Murkowski higher than Tshibaka, which will help Murkowski edge closer to a majority. Additionally, as of April 2 and with a filing deadline of June 1 approaching, there are currently no announced Democrats running for the seat as State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) ended her campaign due to fundraising challenges.
Maine
Maine approved RCV during the November 2016 election and first used it during the June 2018 primary. While the Senate and 1st Congressional District general elections both passed the first round with a majority in 2018, the 2nd Congressional District was subjected to multiple rounds of counting. Then-incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) filed a federal lawsuit arguing that RCV violates the U.S. Constitution and requested that the count be stopped. A federal judge denied Poliquin’s request and Poliquin ended up losing his seat to Democrat Jared Golden.
In 2019, RCV was approved for presidential general elections starting in 2020 and presidential primaries starting in 2024. The Maine Republican Party attempted to secure a veto referendum on the ballot to prevent the presidential primary from being conducted under RCV. The Maine Supreme Judicial Court ultimately ruled that not enough signatures were collected to add the referendum to the ballot and the presidential general election was conducted using RCV.
New York City
Ranked-choice voting was approved in a 2019 ballot measure for primary and special elections for local office and was first used in the June 2021 primary election. The Democratic primary election for mayor hit a snag when election officials retracted a vote count report after realizing that the results were corrupted by test data that was never cleared out of the system. This ended up causing Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams’s lead against former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia to go from 75,000 votes to fewer than 16,000. Adams eventually won the primary against Garcia with 50.5% of the vote.
WHAT IT ALL MEANS
Voters may find RCV more complicated when compared to the traditional voting system. However, its ability to produce a candidate that most constituents tolerate, even if it is not their first choice, helps to counter polarization and give voters a bigger choice in the winner. If Alaska’s elections are successful, it may encourage more states to consider adoption of RCV in future elections.
Whitney Gulvin provides Cogent clients high-impact legislative research, analysis and digital analytics to help inform their outreach and engagement strategy in Washington and beyond the Beltway. She has worked in both the European Parliament and the U.S. Senate for Senator Angus King (I-ME) . For Whitney’s complete bio, click here