After one of the most chaotic campaign cycles in modern history, the 2024 election is finally behind us. While the polls largely had President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat, the final outcome was decisive. Trump continues to “defy political gravity,” as one of our experts noted and came out on top with an impressive margin complemented by a Republican trifecta.
Looking Back
Cogent’s government relations experts weighed in with election reflections, and a clear theme emerged: the signs were there all along.
Dave Oxner said he’s “most surprised at the level of surprise. The warning lights for Democrats were all flashing red and had been for months.”
Jordan Smith noted that not only did Harris not rally the Democratic base effectively, she allowed room for Trump to make major inroads with traditionally Democratic demographics. “The Teamsters chose not to support Harris, Hispanic and Latino voters swung to the right, fewer women were pulled by Harris than both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, and all of the battleground states were swept by Trump,” she said. “While voter turnout did not top 2020, the economy and border were big enough issues this year to motivate Republicans—and even some Democrats—in big ways.”
Randall Gerard cited “Harris’ message focus on democracy being at stake just didn’t resonate. In Vermont, Republicans flipped 26 state legislative seats in a state where Trump only got 31% of the vote. Messaging, messenger, and feelings matter.”
Andrew Kauders agreed that the election has been a “come to Jesus” moment for the Democratic party. “While margins were razor thin, perhaps Democrats have taken the support of working-class Americans for granted and wrongly focused on social and cultural issues. It remains the ‘economy, stupid!'”
CEO Kimberley Fritts offered a Republican perspective. “Money and celebrities don’t buy elections—speaking to the issues that move middle America does,” said Fritts.
Taylor McCarty Hoover suggests voters’ ability to remain objective between the top of the ticket and down-ballot races or initiatives was underestimated. “Considering the success of state-level abortion ballot initiatives in deep red states, I thought that may be a bellwether of Democratic success, at least in congressional races,” she said. “Seven of the 10 ballot initiatives to expand abortion access passed, but voters irrefutably rejected what the Harris-Walz ticket was selling. Clearly, voters were able to compartmentalize better than many anticipated.”
Looking Forward
The Trump transition team has been moving at lightning speed to build out the key personnel who will run Washington with a big agenda come January, but “the slim House majority could make it difficult to move legislation, especially if President-elect Trump continues to tap members of the House to serve in his administration,” said Gina Mahony.
Meanwhile, Shellie Purvis noted that if the cabinet turnover rate is similar to that of the first Trump administration, assistant secretary positions may end up playing a sizable role. “During Trump’s first administration, there were 14 cabinet secretary resignations. His predecessors had less than half that number. These second-in-command roles often provide critical institutional continuity and can act as a stabilizing force within agencies, potentially mitigating some of the volatility associated with frequent cabinet-level turnover.”
Despite a disappointing night for Democrats, don’t expect the party to stay down and out for long. Claudia James noted that hope remains for the party in the form of Senate seat survival. “We saw several Democratic swing-state incumbents prevail despite Republicans sweeping battleground states at the presidential level, and success in open seats in the form of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). She is definitely one to watch as she makes her Senate debut.”
Oxner said he suspects that “being shut out of power will allow Democrats the freedom to focus on rebranding and message development without the burdens of governing. I’d expect them to have strong momentum and dry powder for the 2026 midterms.”
Looking Deeper
“Moving the Trump agenda will require a lot of political capital, which right now Trump has in spades,” said Mahony, recalling President George W. Bush’s post-election press conference in 2004 where he boldly stated, “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.”
But we can’t ignore a notable historical pattern: “After losing the popular vote in 2000, Bush defeated Senator John Kerry with a 50.7% to 48.3% split in the popular vote and 286 electoral votes versus 251, and two years later, Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the midterms. In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president along with a Democratic House and Senate,” Mahony pointed out.
With slim margins still outstanding and more turnover sure to ensue as Trump continues to cherry-pick his administration from the chambers, we may be looking at an unpredictable next four years. Or it may be time to start asking: Is history determined to repeat itself?