Washington’s Annual Budget Bowl

Every autumn, as the leaves turn and tailgates fire up, Washington, D.C., hosts its own high-stakes rivalry game over federal funding. Congress, federal agencies and stakeholders operate under the same tight rules, referees and play clock. This year’s matchup has already stretched into triple overtime. Continuing Resolutions (CR), once temporary fixes, are now standard practice. In fact, Congress hasn’t passed full-year appropriations by the September 30 deadline since 1997. Even a Senate rule change, previously unthinkable, is now on the table. And this particular game is about to get more contentious: critical nutrition programs – the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serving more than 40 million Americans and the nutrition program serving seven million mothers and babies – have run out of funding Saturday, November 1. Head Start early childhood programs and Essential Air Service to rural communities also face funding lapses, while federal workers brace for another round of missed paychecks. Meanwhile, the December 31 expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies looms, threatening health insurance premium increases for millions of Americans – the issue Senate Democrats have made central to their position on supporting any government funding measures.

Halftime Adjustments | Finding a Path to the End Zone

This isn’t about one team fumbling at the goal line; it’s about two rivals who know each other’s playbook that every drive stalls out. Like the 2018-19 government shutdown that lasted 35 days, history shows that shutdowns often end in compromise, with minimal points on the board, but enough to secure a victory. While this particular playbook is being rewritten, five key plays could drive through a stalemate and land the ball in the endzone:

🏈 A few Senate Democrats could pull a transfer portal move mid-season, joining Republicans to build the 60-vote coalition needed to break the impasse. GOP leaders are reportedly courting moderates with promises of future bipartisan budget talks, though trust in those commitments remains thin. This pathway leverages the tradition of cross-aisle teamwork seen in prior shutdown resolutions to move the ball forward without dismantling Senate norms.

🏈 A huddle between Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and President Trump could yield a path to fund the government, despite Trump’s public stance against negotiating during a shutdown. Such a meeting isn’t impossible, as key leaders have brokered deals in past crises. This approach could pair a temporary CR with a framework for ACA subsidy discussions, reflecting the team spirit that often ends these standoffs.

🏈 Schumer could ease his team’s opposition on a clean CR, allowing temporary funding to pass without tying it to ACA subsidy extensions. This maneuver has worked in past resolutions where the initiating side steps back, focusing instead on future advocacy. Democrats could highlight their health care push ahead of the 2026 midterms in a pragmatic play to reopen the government while keeping the subsidy fight alive for another quarter.

🏈 Calling a time-out and meeting in the middle means House Republican leaders might agree to a temporary ACA subsidy extension as constituent pressure mounts, particularly from GOP members in competitive districts. This play has historically been run when shutdowns have pushed majorities to act as public frustration grows.

🏈 Finally, Senate Republicans could invoke the Hail Mary play to adjust filibuster rules and pass funding with a simple majority. While used recently for nominations, GOP leaders like Senate Majority Leader John Thune have signaled reluctance to apply this to legislation. This bold move would resolve the shutdown swiftly but risks escalating future conflicts.

When the Student Section Gets Restless | Game-Changing Momentum

The resolution hinges on how loud the stadium roars. The programs mentioned at kickoff – SNAP, Head Start, Essential Air Service – are just the beginning. With more than 800,000 federal workers furloughed without pay, national parks closed, and increasingly frequent air traffic delays at major hubs across the U.S., the shutdown’s impact is already tangible. These factors could tip the scales:

• • Reading the Crowd: Current polls lean blame toward Republicans while showing strong bipartisan support (78%) for extending ACA subsidies. Voter frustration historically targets the party in power.

• • The Momentum Shift: Like a late-game injury to the starting quarterback, shutdowns get costlier over time. Critical services affecting Americans’ daily lives face mounting delays. Veterans benefits halt, agricultural inspections for farmers stall, and people experience reduced emergency response capabilities. Past shutdowns show that when disruptions move beyond Washington, D.C., to Main Street – affecting workers, families, and community safety – public pressure for a resolution intensifies.
  • The Playoff Picture: With the 2026 midterms looming, senators in tight races face intense scrutiny, especially those in states Trump narrowly won or lost. House members in swing districts are also feeling heat. No one wants to explain a shutdown during campaign season.

The Fourth Quarter Reality | A Shared Goal

Washington’s budget bowl is less about one side outmaneuvering the other and more about navigating the same constraints: congressional messaging, public expectations and a ticking play clock. With nutrition programs depleted, childcare interrupted, and essential services stalled, the consequences reach far beyond the Beltway. While there has been some optimistic talk in the Capitol over the last few days on restarting negotiations on the pending spending bills, both parties continue to claim their shutdown position is defensible. Someone needs to call the play before these funding lapses and delays turn from temporary disruptions into lasting damage.