A handful of battleground Senate races will likely chart the path for the final two years of President Biden’s first term and the fight for control in 2024. The betting odds are in favor of the Republicans to take back the House of Representatives in November, but the path forward in the Senate for the opposition party is not so clear. A unified GOP Congress could present an interesting opportunity for Biden to play dealmaker again, while a divided Congress could lead to aggressive government oversight and ever-increasing rancor and division as members arrive in Washington next January. Prior to putting the cart before the horse on what the future may entail, let’s take a closer look at a handful of bellwether Senate races: Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Arizona
Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is running to serve a full term after winning a special election in 2020 by 2.4 percentage points when he defeated Governor Doug Ducey’s appointed Republican incumbent, former Senator Martha McSally. Arizona has seen several political shifts since the passing of legendary Republican Senator John McCain. Arizona was long considered ruby red, but that changed when Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)) defeated McSally in 2018 by 2.4 percentage points and Biden defeated Trump by a super slim 0.3 percentage points in 2020.
The Grand Canyon State, however, remains a frequent stop for Trump. His base in Arizona relishes his populist brand, while progressive Democrats have high hopes of turning the state from purple to blue with its ever-expanding Latino population. Sen. Kelly has more than $23 million of cash on hand and a robust national fundraising base. His Republican competitors include sitting Attorney General Mark Brnovich, venture capitalist and Peter Thiel protégé Blake Masters, and business executive Jim Lamon who has a little over $7 million on hand – the best-funded of all the Republican candidates. How the Biden Administration responds to the crisis at the border could prove to be a determinative factor in Sen. Kelly’s reelection odds.
State of the Race
Race Rating
Recent Republican Primary Polling
| Poll | Poll Date | Brnovich (R) | Lamon (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 4/25 - 4/28 | 24% | 25% |
| OH Predictive Insights | 4/4 - 4/5 | 21% | 16% |
Fundraising (2021-22 Cycle)
| Candidate | Raised* | Burn Rate | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kelly (D) | $40.56M | 50.0% | $23.32M |
| Mark Brnovich (R) | $2.55M | 79.3% | $528.96K |
| Jim Lamon (R) | $13.84M | 48.1% | $7.18M |
*Does not include candidate contributions or loans
Source: FEC
Nevada
Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) succeeded the late Democratic Senator Harry Reid in 2016, winning her first term by 27,000 votes (roughly the same margin by which Clinton beat Trump). In 2018, then-incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) lost by nearly five points in a “blue wave” election. And, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrats found themselves on top again when Biden took the state by nearly three points. Despite what these recent numbers indicate, several Republican campaign professionals are bullish on winning statewide races in Nevada, putting significant money behind their challenger to Sen. Cortez Masto, Trump-endorsed former attorney general, Adam Laxalt.
State of the Race
Race Rating
Recent General Election Polling
| Poll | Poll Date | Cortez Masto (D) | Laxalt (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Independent | 4/1 - 4/9 | 43% | 35% |
| Reno Gazette-Journal/Suffolk | 4/2 - 4/6 | 40% | 43% |
Fundraising (2021-22 Cycle)
| Candidate | Raised* | Burn Rate | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | $22.73M | 53.7% | $11.08M |
| Adam Laxalt (R) | $4.35M | 48.6% | $2.24M |
*Does not include candidate contributions or loans
Source: FEC
Pennsylvania
Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) is retiring after serving as a conservative in a moderate state for two terms. Biden won Pennsylvania by fewer than 100,000 votes in 2020 after Trump won in 2016 by more than 40,000 votes. These numbers make it clear that the Keystone State will remain a toss-up battleground as the GOP increasingly tries to identify and engage disaffected lower-income and middle-class voters. If Democrats manage to flip control of this seat, it seems more likely than not that they will maintain or increase their control of the Senate.
In the race to replace Toomey there are many candidates on both sides, but the Republican fight seems to center around two political novices, hedge fund executive David McCormick and Trump-endorsed television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. Both candidates are well-resourced and have hired strong political teams to help them navigate the primary and the general. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) Super PAC has committed $24 million to the primary winner.
The strongest Democratic candidates for the open seat are current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman and Representative Connor Lamb (D-PA), who currently represents the suburbs of Pittsburgh.
State of the Race
Race Rating
Republican Primary Polling (RCP Average)
| Poll | Poll Date | McCormick (R) | Oz (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/25 - 4/13 | 22.2% | 18.8% |
Democratic Primary Polling (RCP Average)
| Poll | Poll Date | Fetterman (D) | Lamb (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/26 - 4/10 | 37% | 13.5% |
Fundraising (2021-22 Cycle)
| Candidate | Raised* | Burn Rate | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| David McCromick (R) | $11.31M | 84.5% | $1.76M |
| Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) | $13.43M | 80.9% | $2.56M |
| John Fetterman (D) | $15.1M | 72.4% | $4.16M |
| Connor Lamb (D) | $5.84M | 76.9% | $2.22M |
*Does not include candidate contributions or loans
Source: FEC
Ohio
Ohio hosted one of the first primaries of the year on May 3. In the race to replace retiring Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), Trump-endorsed Hillbilly Elegy author Republican J.D. Vance and 20-year House veteran Tim Ryan (D-OH)) won their parties’ primaries. Trump’s picks up and down the ballot in Ohio swept every race they entered and seemingly made the difference in pushing Vance over perennial candidate Josh Mandel. As a historical sidenote, Senator Portman endorsed business leader Jane Timken early in the race, which gave her a short-lived bump in the polls, but she found herself ultimately in fourth place in the Republican primary.
Republicans have won the past two presidential elections by more than eight points in the Buckeye State, suggesting that Ohio’s status as a swing state may be lost. On the other hand, the voters continue to re-elect Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), one of the more liberal members in the Senate, suggesting that working class populism will remain key to victory.
State of the Race
Race Rating
Republican Primary Results
| Primary Date | Vance (R) | Mandel (R) | Dolan (R) | Gibbons (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/3 | 32.2% | 23.9% | 23.3% | 11.7% |
Fundraising (2021-22 Cycle)
| Candidate | Raised* | Burn Rate | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance (R) | $2.53M | 35.7% | $1.63M |
| Tim Ryan (D) | $12.64M | 48.8% | $6.47M |
*Does not include candidate contributions or loans
Source: FEC
Wisconsin
A true battleground, Wisconsin went to Biden by just 20,000 votes, and Trump won by a similar margin in 2016. Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) has broken his pledge to only serve two terms and is running for re-election, allowing the GOP to avoid an open race with untested candidates. Democratic challengers include Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee Bucks Executive Alex Larsy, State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Tom Nelson, the Outagamie County executive and former state Senate majority leader. Sen. Johnson has long been a vocal and consistent supporter of Trump and his policies. Maintaining that base of support will be key to the Senator’s re-election efforts. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has flagged this as a key seat to defend, pledging at least $15 million from his affiliated Super PAC to help Johnson.
State of the Race
Race Rating
Democratic Primary Polling (RCP Average)
| Poll | Poll Date | Barnes (D) | Lasry (D) | Godlewski (D) | Nelson (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | 4/19 - 4/24 | 19% | 16% | 7% | 5% |
| Marquette | 2/22 - 2/27 | 23% | 13% | 3% | 5% |
Fundraising (2021-22 Cycle)
| Candidate | Raised* | Burn Rate | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Johnson (R) | $10.95M | 71.7% | $3.57M |
| Mandela Barnes (D) | $4.07M | 60.2% | $1.62M |
| Sarah Godlewski (D) | $5.1M | 68% | $1.63M |
| Alex Lasry (D) | $9.07M | 89% | $996.92K |
| Tom Nelson (D) | $1.39M | 63.4% | $549.76K |
*Does not include candidate contributions or loans
Source: FEC
Managing Director and Arizona native Randall Gerard is one of Cogent’s principal liaisons for outreach to congressional Republican leadership and maintains close ties to governors and their staffs as an active member of the Republican Governors Association’s National Finance Committee.
Ohio native and Cogent Managing Director Dave Oxner draws on his impressive background in the private sector and on Capitol Hill, previously working for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) and serving both the House and Senate Banking Committees.